Political Betting 2022 – Political Betting Tips & Recommended Bets

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Recommended Bets

  • Buy Brian Kemp for Republican Georgia Primary @ 44c (PredictIt)
  • Back 2022 for Boris Johnson Exit @ 2.96 (Betfair)
  • Lay (oppose) 2024 or later for Boris Johnson Exit @ 2.2 (Betfair
  • Back Lula da Silva for Brazilian Presidential Election @ 1.67 (Betfair)

2021 was relatively quiet in terms of political
betting but 2022 will be huge. We have constant action throughout the year,
across various continents.

Very Worrying Mid-Term Signals For Biden’s
Democrats 

The biggest markets involve the usual countries.
November sees the US mid-term elections for the House of Representatives, a
third of Senate seats plus various gubernatorial races.

As the year progresses, as primaries are resolved,
I’ll analyze the most exciting races for states and congressional districts but
first, let’s consider the big picture.

Prospects are looking grim for the Democrats, with
Joe Biden’s approval ratings down below 45 percent, compared to above 50 percent
when winning the presidency.

Image: Gage Skidmore

A shock defeat in Virginia and close shave in New
Jersey demonstrated how hard it will be to retain their diverse coalition in
government, rather than opposition, and without the toxic name of Donald Trump
on the ballot.

Consequently, the Republicans are hot favorites to regain both chambers. BetOnline quote odds of 1.12 for them to win the House and 1.33 for the Senate.

Betfair offer appealingly higher about the latter at 1.44.

PredictIt have an interesting four-way market involving the double. The Republicans to win both House/Senate is trading at 68c.

What Will AOC Do
Next? 

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Image: Matt Johnson/Flickr, CC BY 2.0

Beforehand, there are numerous interesting primaries to resolve.

For example the odds on PredictIt imply Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a mere 43 percent chance to run again in her NY-14 district. Thus raising the question of her next move.

You can buy at 10c that she’ll run in the Democrat Primary for the NY Senate. BetOnline offer 4.0 that she’ll run for President in 2024 (defined as being on the ballot of the first caucus or primary).

Another famous candidate is involved in the
Pennsylvania Senate race, with Mehmet Oz, or “Dr Oz”, rated second favorite for
the Republican Primary.

BetOnline offer 5.5 that he’ll be elected to the Senate or 3.0 to win the primary. He’s trading at 26c on PredictIt for the latter. David McCormick is the favorite there, trading around 60c.

Georgia Governor Battle
Offers The Best State Markets

The race for Georgia Governor is fascinating on multiple
levels.

Stacey Abrams looks certain to be the Democrat
candidate but there’s a very competitive primary on the Republican side.

It looks mainly between incumbent Brian Kemp and
former Senator David Perdue, with Donald Trump backing the latter while attacking
Kemp for failing to back his claims that the presidential election was rigged.

That potential split on the Right means BetOnline make Abrams the favorite, at 2.5 compared to 2.55 for Perdue. 2.8 Kemp.

Winning this race could turn Abrams into a 2024 contender – the same firm offer 34.0 that she wins the Democrat nomination, and 100.0 the presidency.

For me, the most appealing bet is a buy of
Kemp for the primary at 44c with PredictIt.

He has a solid local base of support and Trump’s ability to determine such party selections is over-rated.

However given Trump’s hostility, a Kemp candidacy could well hurt his side’s turnout and aid Abrams.

Back Boris To Leave Office

Over to the UK, where the future of Prime Minister
Boris Johnson is a hot topic.

Boris Johnson
Image: Wikimedia Commons

His approval ratings have sunk to dismal levels and
his Conservative Party’s long-term poll lead has been overhauled by Labour. The
party suffered a historic, humiliating by-election defeat prior to
Christmas. 

The Tories have a long history of dumping unpopular
leaders and Johnson should be worried.

Inflation, further fallout from Brexit and imminent tax rises are likely to compound his problems. Rivals are openly positioning.

Betfair offer 2.96 that he’ll leave office during 2022 and 1.83 that he’ll be gone before 2024. Both represent cracking bets in my view.

Regarding the race to succeed him, Rishi Sunak is a 3.8 chance to be Next Conservative Leader, ahead of Liz Truss second in at 5.1.

They look highly likely to be the two main
contenders but beware: Early favorites for Tory leadership contests have an
abysmal track record.

Two Major European Elections Upcoming

The main event in Europe this year is April’s
French Presidential Election.

Here, Emmanuel Macron is best priced at 1.67 on Betfair.

That is probably a sound investment, because there’s a high chance he faces a far-right candidate in the run-off, against whom a majority voters would unite, as in 2017.

Emmanuel Macron
Image: Remi Jouan/Wikimedia Commons

However, were his opponent to be the Republican,
Valerie Pecresse, I’d consider this to be a 50/50 contest.

Hungary is also making the news, with Tucker
Carlson hosting his show from Budapest and now Trump has endorsed Prime
Minister Viktor Orban for their general election, due to take place in April or
May. 

Orban starts hot favorite but faces an
extraordinary coalition of parties, united against what they regard as an
authoritarian assault on democracy and civil liberties.

They’re all aligned around a conservative, Peter Marki-Zay, who appears very electable. BetOnline rate him a 2.7 chance compared to 1.4 about Orban, whom you can alternatively buy at around 65c on PredictIt.

Pacquiao Presidential Bid
Is Floundering

In Asia, the Philippines Presidential Election is
already a big betting event. Not least because Manny Pacquiao is running.

The betting has moved against him though. BetOnline’s odds about the boxing legend are now 10.0, having opened around 2.0.

Bongbong Marcus is the red-hot favorite here, trading around 83c. The contest is scheduled for May 9.

Finally, the Brazilian General Election looks bound
to be a huge global story in October.

Lula da Silva
Image: Ricardo Stuckert/Wikimedia Commons

Former president Lula da Silva is running again,
having beaten corruption charges set up by political opponents. The judge who
charged him, Sergio Moro, is third favorite behind Lula and incumbent Jair
Bolsonaro. 

There’s a big difference in odds between market
makers here.

BetOnline rate Lula a -350 chance. PredictIt have him trading at 70c. Yet
on Betfair, he can be backed at 1.67 to be President after the election.

Those inflated odds are likely due to the potential for disputes and violence, but the former president is sure to have the backing of critical international allies.

Take the 1.67. I reckon this will trade much shorter later in the year. 

Recommended Bets

  • Buy Brian Kemp for Republican Georgia Primary @ 44c (PredictIt)
  • Back 2022 for Boris Johnson Exit @ 2.96 (Betfair)
  • Lay (oppose) 2024 or later for Boris Johnson Exit @ 2.2 (Betfair
  • Back Lula da Silva for Brazilian Presidential Election @ 1.67 (Betfair)



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