Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue fell 1.2% year-on-year in September to MOP18.06 billion, approximately US$2.24 billion, extending the market’s run of annual declines to four consecutive months.
Figures released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau on October 1 show that September produced the lowest monthly GGR total recorded in 2026. Revenue also declined 17.5% from August, when Macau casinos generated MOP21.89 billion.
The result came broadly in line with Citigroup’s revised estimate of MOP18 billion. The brokerage reduced its forecast earlier in September after observing weakness in premium-mass table activity.
Macau nevertheless recorded stronger visitor numbers toward the end of the month. Around 415,000 visitors entered the city during mainland China’s three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday from September 25 to 27, representing a 19.5% year-on-year increase.
The improvement in arrivals did not translate into annual GGR growth. The market has continued to show softer revenue conditions following the football World Cup period in June and July, while analysts have reduced expectations for the remainder of 2026.
Year-to-Date GGR Remains in Positive Territory
Despite September’s decline, Macau remained ahead of its 2025 performance over the first nine months of the year.
According to Inside Asian Gaming, casino GGR totaled MOP187.116 billion, or around US$23.19 billion, between January and September. That marked a 3.2% increase from MOP181.341 billion during the comparable period last year.
Cumulative growth has slowed, however, after standing at 3.7% through August.
Third-quarter revenue reached MOP60.21 billion, representing a 1.3% sequential decrease from the MOP61.03 billion recorded during the second quarter.
Macau also remains below the revenue levels recorded before the pandemic. GGR for the first nine months of 2026 was 15.1% lower than the MOP220.297 billion generated over the same period in 2019.
September showed a similar gap. The latest monthly total was 18.2% below the MOP22.08 billion recorded in September 2019.
The figures leave Macau with positive year-to-date growth heading into the final quarter, despite four consecutive months of weaker year-on-year comparisons.
Investment Outlook Turns More Cautious
The September result comes as financial analysts reassess expectations for Macau’s casino sector.
CreditSights Inc said it “does not rule out” the possibility of “tighter regulatory scrutiny” remaining an overhang for the market. The firm said such conditions could affect sentiment in the VIP gaming segment.
CLSA Ltd has also raised concerns over earnings expectations. The brokerage said “risks” surrounding a “consensus downward revision” for Macau-industry earnings had “escalated”.
CLSA had already reduced its 2027 and 2028 Macau forecasts in mid-September.
The International Monetary Fund addressed the changing composition of casino revenue in a separate report, projecting that VIP gaming will account for a relatively small share of Macau’s total GGR over the medium term despite indications of some recovery.
Market expectations had previously included the possibility of a stronger September after customer visitation and agent activity showed signs of improvement. The final DICJ figures instead produced the weakest monthly GGR result of the year.
Final Quarter Will Shape 2026 Performance
Macau enters the last three months of 2026 with cumulative casino revenue still 3.2% above the same stage last year.
September’s stronger holiday visitation provides evidence that travel demand remains active, although casino revenue has recently failed to match those gains. At the same time, the sequential decline from August and the fourth consecutive year-on-year contraction have contributed to a more cautious industry outlook.
The final quarter will determine whether Macau can preserve its year-to-date increase after revenue growth slowed during the third quarter.